I just saw an excellent presentation by James Turk, founder of GoldMoney.com. He had just returned from Europe and was commenting on the severe economic downturn there. He presented this interesting statistic as a leading indicator on the health of the European economy.
Volvo truck sales in the third quarter of 2008 were 115 new lorries. That compares to orders totalling 41,970 in the third quarter of 2007, or a drop of 99.7%.
Volvo trucks are partially owned by General Motors. General Motors goes into financial troubles, then so will Volvo in a small percentage. Those with General Motors cars and trucks might end up with orphanned cars. The owners might have cash for the brakes, but no where to buy them, if the automobile parts industry goes under. Many Asian brands of vehicles are manufactured here to avoid tariffs and import taxes and duties. These Asian brands depends upon the same companies that supplies parts for General Motors, Ford, and Chyrsler. The Toyota Corrola is manufactured in California by NUMI, a joint venture by General Motors and Toyota. Toyota is related to GM and Honda is family owned. Many General Motor dealerships are switching brands to survive like Ellis Brooks in San Francisco was a long time Chevy GM store, but no more as General Motors did not pay them back their employee’s discount rebates. This is a good time to buy a Corvette or SUV for the prices are less and only if you have an income, but a % of the population does not. One can have money, but no where to buy it, if everyone closes over Wall Street and government mishandled the money and value of the money. The American brands actually sells well in China. I definitely do not want my automobile to be from China, though I am Chinese by nationality.
Robert:
Excellent, excellent point!
Catherine
Trucks? Lets just hope the trucks out there have cash for brakes.
It is not just the American brands that in woes. Foreign brands like Volvo are in facing a tough market, too. American automobile manufacturers treat that they unique, which is not so.
There are indications that the recession will evolve to a depression by February. I cannot let my debt stay in situ beyond 2009. If I can find two temporary ocean consulting jobs and charge the value of my debt, that will pay it off and give a rate below what others will charge. Taxes? My mom can help me with that, because some of her investments are tied to my social security number. I will contribute less to the house hold and the neighbor’s fences. That will keep the financial system honest to everyone and myself, too. The goal is to not let that debt grow. It is many times my own economy, now. Traditional economic models, when someone graduates from university, they take a retail job, that insurance is not available anymore. The previous recessions did not cause scarcity so widespread as this one. I doubt the 1930s depression was this widespread. It was just 25% unemployed, they probably counted the unemployed differently than today. We might have the same amount, the country can still exists even with 25% unemployed and even 30% unemployed. Some are like me, living at my household house and curb spending and uncounted for. My neighbor’s lost $4,000.00 to $10,000.00 in financial markets. They could not pay me for the fence repairs that I have completed. Some joined to be served in Iraq, those are the few that have good pay, serving in Iraq. Obama will let it business as usually in Iraq until 2011 and we will lose some 10,000 people total by 2011. Gasoline will climb back to $2.50/gallon by summer 2009. I have been without anything to do since 2007. I am faced that no one has money to pay me for what I do.
No one has the payroll to hire me.
This is scary, and only highlights the beauty of your work, Catherine: it is warning to us all, this could be us next year. The time is NOW to pare down and prepare, to discover community and develop resiliency.