2nd Quarter 2018 Wrap Up: The Rise of the Asian Consumer

37 Comments

1. Well, yup….time to learn Mandarin.
   https://www.livelingua.com/chinese/courses/#Mandarin
   🙂

   1. 🙂 Indeed!

      1. Interesting, so Jim Rogers was right all along to move to Singapore and teach his daughters Mandarin?

2. Catherine……Masterful commentary throughout the whole Wrap-up! a few comments on Macron of France…the people could not wait to bring him in, and I am wondering who really voted for him. The women? Seeing a good looking, John F. Kennedy type with a fantasy older woman-younger man story? My own sex is sometimes it’s own worse enemy. Certainly not those who own businesses and property. His comments about his country prove his inability to lead it anywhere. I am of French descent on my father’s side; and it is a shame to go and see what is happening with the ‘takeover’.

   1. Luckily French culture is way more powerful than anything Macron can do.

3. Moore’s law noun, often capitalized L
   \ ˈmȯrz- ,
   ˈmu̇rz- \
   Definition of Moore’s law

   : an axiom of microprocessor development usually holding that processing power doubles about every 18 months especially relative to cost or size

   1. 🙂

4. My husband was a PUD commissioner, on the board of WPPS and the BPA in the 1980’s. His Grandfather was the Chelan County PUD at it’s inceptionin the late 19th century.

   In 1984 the Chelan County PUD hosted a delegation of Chinese, which included the Minister of Energy. The local Chelan County PUD officials were ordered to give the Chinese our Hydroelectric technology. The delegation was in the area for several weeks.

   Everyone on the Commission was somewhat mystified by the Federal government giving away our technology.
   To be honest , I was unreasonably upset about this. In retrospect I understand why.

   As a female I was required not to look the Chinese males in the eye. In fact, I was instructed to not to look at them at all I was told to look down demurly. I took no small amount of grief for refusing.

   I’m fairly certain watching the “miracle” of China’s rise, we in Chelan County were not the only ones ordered to give technology to the Chinese.

   1. You can be 100% sure of that! Great comment – thanks for posting.

5. I decided to stop watching the Kavanaugh hearings and decided to contribute to something real.

   This is a wrap up I am going to listen to 3 or 4 more times. Just brilliant.

   Working in the fashion industry there’s an intimate relationship with China due to so much manufacturing that is done in all of Asia. Here are some trends I like to contribute:

   At its peek in the 80’s, Prato, Italy had over 40,000 textile mills. Today there’s less than 4,000 and that number is from 5 years ago. It’s properly less due to shipping textile manufacturing to China.

   Yes, the Chinese do steal intellectual property. They are known in the industry as excellent copiers. Most of the Italian mills got sick of being copied and opened factories in China. As more asian students go to design schools in the US and Europe this will change. I thought long and hard about this, the only thing that will save america and Europe is our/their culture. That is something they don’t have. Yes, students can learn Bach and organ playing but I am talking about the ethnic culture that makes each European country unique to them. What’s really interesting lately Italian designers talking about the beauty, tradition, and culture of Italy. It’s that higher connection to the Italian artistic side that makes them unique and they are promoting it. More than the French fashion houses interestingly enough. Obviously due to the politics of the day. It has been more than one designer from different brands talking and promoting the same thing that I picked up on and my gut is telling me its in connection to the rise of Asia. It’s easy for the Italians to do. Their culture is awesome. They have a lot to be proud of. Sadly, the French are sucked in the whole global crap. French citizens know its killing them but corporations like LVMH are on the global path. I saw your tweet on Hermes and Hermes is in a category of its own. Hermes is brand of the elites.

   I know you just released your interview with Dr. Farrell on his new book and that’s ANOTHER topic I can contribute to going through art school in the 90s. I didn’t see the mind control in my 20’s but boy I see it now. Catherine, go to the Village today and you will be horrified. I feel for these kids. It is really ugly. I digress.

   10 years ago, the couture market of luxury brands was considered a dying industry used to only promote perfume and accessories for luxury brands. This past season it went from 5 fashion shows to 15 which doesn’t sound like a lot but for dresses that cost anywhere from $20-100,000 its a lot. Again, my gut is saying the asians.

   The fashion calendar for fashions and market starts in NY and ends in Paris. This year Tommy Hilfiger did his fashion show in Shanghai at the start of fashion week here in NYC. Mulberry a traditional British brand, also did theirs in China ahead of the London fashion week.

   The American designer Michael Kors has 6 stores in India and I don’t think any other designer has that many stores including the European big brands. He got a jump in India.

   all signs are point to the east and it’s really interesting.

   1. Yes. EXCELLENT COMMENTS. And the growth will be explosive. Excellence in fashion and beauty is only going to grow more valuable. This is why Macron is off his rocker when he says there is no such thing as French culture or a Frenchman It is like blowing up a gold mine. You would have to be insane to destroy your most valuable asset.

      1. When I lived in Paris in 2001-2002 a person living in France had to follow the French motto, Liberté, égalité, fraternité. At that time, they were not open to muslim women wearing hijabs. Living in Paris there was a pride of being French. The last time I was in Paris was 5 years ago and I was shocked. I felt the French identity was lost. Williamsburg is a very trendy part of Brooklyn where the hipsters hang and parts of Paris had that very same vibe. A LOT of English written everywhere. Donuts in the Mache du Puce…! I couldn’t believe it. There has to be contrast between the country sides of France and the big cities. There’s no way all of France is falling down this hole.

         They are going to blow up their greatest asset and I truly believe it will be the 2nd French Revolution.

6. Listening to this was a paradigm shifting experience for me. It’s as if the top of my head was peeled open, and ideas and realities the size of aircraft carriers were compacted into my cranium . I went through a whole range of emotions as I sat here… from realization and Epiphany , to depression and terror!! Then, the man in me said, Duane, get up off your sniveling ass and deal with this shit head on! This isn’t the time to be paralyzed by fear, laziness, or apathy. Its time to ACT.
   I’ll tell you watch Catherine, I think I’ve studied every word you’ve written or spoken over these last 19 years, and this report is at the top !
   Thank you so much…?

7. Catherine,

   I saw this 2013 article on the South China Sea and the conflict between the Philippines and China some time ago. I’m sure you’ve seen it already but just sharing.

   http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/index.html

   The last paragraph of the article had left an impression on me since reading it:

   “You’ve got the wrong science-fiction movie,” one former highly placed U.S. official later told me, when I described what we saw at Subi, and what it might mean for the guys on Ayungin. “It’s not the Death Star. It’s actually the Borg from ‘Star Trek’: ‘You will be assimilated. Resistance is futile.’ ” The scholar Huang Jing put it another, more organic way. “The Chinese expand like a forest, very slowly,” he said. “But once they get there, they never leave.”

8. From a subscriber:

   Listening to last week’s commentary regarding the rise of the Asian consumer….I found myself saying “exactly” quite often. Especially when you described how our neighborhoods are changing, at least here in the Bay Area, with the influx of Asian, and, to a lesser extent, Russian immigrants.

   I’m remodeling [a home] in the City. This area has experienced a dramatic population change. Asians first began moving into the Richmond District and now they’ve pretty much taken over the Sunset and Parkside Districts. It’s been stunning.

   Last week when shopping at our corner produce store, I had an interesting experience. The cashier was a lovely young millennial. Tall, quite attractive – model material. This job must be a part-time deal for her college expenses I’m thinking. Anyway…..there’s a little hierarchy there – as with most places. “The line starts here” stuff. An older gentleman and I did a little dance, of sorts, to make sure that he went first. I was laughing about it when I put my basket on the counter for checkout. The cashier was amused as well – then, without any prompting what-so-ever, went on a rant about how horrific the Chinese are to deal with. No prompting required! She was on a roll. “Rude, obnoxious, superior. They think they’re better.” I just let her vent and then offered – “it’s all about culture. We need to make sure we retain our values.” She looked beyond demoralized.

   This is the sort of stuff I deal with every darned day. And this is where I think the elitist politicians have missed the boat. They live in protected neighborhoods. (Don’t get me going on the sheltered world of Pacific Heights where Pelosi and Feinstein hole-up.) They don’t deal directly with these dramatic changes. There’s a reason Trump has a dedicated army of followers. They are not haters. Their world is being threatened. I would like to think that most native-born Americans are decent folks, willing to give their new neighbors the benefit of the doubt. But that’s not returned by the new arrivals. They truly behave as an invading army.

   Additionally, we are expected to embrace law-breakers, who are referred to by the MSM as “undocumented workers.” They are immediately shepherded onto public assistance – but we are threatened with the sword of the IRS if we don’t pay every dime they deem we owe. Honestly, any American who doesn’t feel betrayed by their elected officials isn’t paying attention. It’s obviously we’ve been pushed aside for what they see is the future. Cheap Hispanic and third-world labor and well compensated Asian intellectuals.

   Perhaps the goal is to evict those deemed to be less than optimal from the deep purple areas of the country, so they may continue to expand their new world tech order. Certainly, culturally, the message is clear. I remember you saying that you enjoy talking with truck drivers in your treks across the US. Give me someone who has worked each day with his hands to create his world, and you can keep all the self-absorbed self-described intellectuals. I fear that the preferred path is hallowing out our souls.

   America’s backbone has been kicked to the side of the road. We don’t expect anything gratis. We take pride in being self-sufficient. I thought that was supposed to be our objective. At least that’s what my Depression-scarred mother used to tell me. “Waste not, want not.”….I know how so many feel. We feel betrayed.

   I can’t describe how much I appreciate having access to your world view.

   1. Asked for permission to post this – a great voice in describing the extraordinary destruction of productive people in America.

      1. San Francisco has changed over the decades to become a major magnet for money. The Richmond and Sunset districts have been Chinatowns 2 and 3 for sometime now. Parkside was the next logical neighborhood.

         The issue is that the Chinese are ultimately playing the game by the rules given to everyone (and can be better at the game, including knowing how to successfully “bend” the rules more than others). Complaining that one should have a life without environmental change is a sign of unreasonable entitlement.

         As a former Bay Area resident of 20+ years, leaving in part due to the influx of Chinese immigrants, moreso due to the influx of technocrats, I did just that. I left. I loved the Bay Area and thought I would retire and die there, but things changed… drastically… especially in recent years.

         I’m certainly not defending the Chinese who have taken over the westside of SF or the techies who have descended on the City, but it’s just the reality of the area; when I was there, I personally generally avoided those neighborhoods.

         No one is entitled to have their environment remain the same. The only constant in the universe is change. Sure, there are some battles that can be fought and I have and would again, but some are simply losing battles.

         It seems that many Americans live in their own bubbles, unaware and protected from the harsh realities outside of the US, especially (generally and relatively speaking) outside of North America and Western Europe. This influx of the “outside world” is just a wake-up call to the so-called “American way of life.” I’m not sure if much can be done to maintain that “way of life” besides systemic protectionism; moreso I’m not sure how healthy it would be to maintain it.

         In some ways it can be compared to living a reality through rose-colored glasses, like the elite politicians living in Pac Heights, but in a *much* less luxurious manner. People’s realities are being challenged, and the “larger reality” cannot be easily stopped, if at all.

         We all live in interesting times…

         Note: I am a Chinese-American, born and having grown up in the Midwest before moving to California.

         1. VERY WISE WORDS. We have lived in a bubble. The bubble is over. What comes next is something we will create together – and as you have discovered, the demographics are powerful.
            Thanks for posting.

         2. Fantastic commentary, thank you, you described what I couldn’t put in words.

   2. Fantastic commentary, thank you. Accurately describes the transformation of the locale where I live and my own personal reflections to the T… things are happening so fast, in a such a negative way, yet no one dares speak up about it,,,, if they even understand it at all . It’s a relief to my own mental loneliness to know that others Understand.

      1. Duane:

         I so appreciate your kind words. My goal is to produce actionable intelligence along the lines of the briefings the top people are getting. It is a different way of looking at the world.

         Keep the intel coming!

         Catherine

9. Dear Catherine,

   Another tour de force. Your report would make a wonderful BBC series, a number 1 best-seller or a profound doctoral thesis.

   Great Movies, Documentaries and Bibliography sections. Enough here to keep me busy for a month.

   I know that your report was about the Asian consumer and that you urged us to reflect upon what a doubling or trebling of the Asian middle class would mean for us, but what really hit me was the comment you made at time 40:00 about the marines not being able to recruit 70% of our youth. That’s a fact that must make us all sit up and think about what’s going on and worry about what implications does this have for our future if almost 3/4 of our young people are not fit mentally, emotionally or physically to become cannon fodder.

   Could it have something to do with the fact that we’re being given bad food, bad water, bad air and bad education, are being entrained, bombarded by rays from cell towers and from chemicals pumped in the sky and pharmaceuticals push into our bodies?

   Since I am sure this did not happen over night, those in their 30s and 40s are probably also a part of this group of the great unfit. That means there are a lot of rejects out there and they are running the show. They are the ones delivering care, teaching our young, administering government, managing businesses and providing a broad range of services. These are the people we have to deal with on a daily basis.

   No wonder everything is such a mess. They are so busy with getting tattoos, taking selfies and clicking on “likes” that they can’t think or even do the simplest jobs properly.

   It also makes me fear the possibility that a special military class will evolve which will see itself as separate and apart form the general population. As we learned from your interview about the militia with Edwin Vierera, that’s entering very dangerous territory.

   To me, this all seems a far more worrisome prospect than a rise of the Asian middle class.

   Any thoughts?

   1. Andrew:

      There is a systematic debasement of most of the US population underway – no doubt about it. Yes, it is very worrisome. Since I thought it was an emergency to prevent it coming out of the Bush Administration in 1991, I have learned that this is a long distance effort and have learned to pace myself. So I tend not to get emotional about it – I confess to living in a “state of emergency” for several decades until I interviewed Bill Tiller and learned about the importance of remaining coherent and watched mind control and other control techniques block me on thousands of occasions. Then I realized that I needed to fine a different pace.

   2. Andrew, I have a son and his wife who are army officers. While physical fitness is a notable aspect of their lives, there is a huge supply of Kool-Aid that is liberally (note word) dispensed to our armed forces. My fear is we will come to have the best rainbow force possible, with little consideration to the traditional conservatism that used to undergird our nation’s sovereignty. In other words, we ultimately may become unable to use the military to exemplify and vouchsafe what most of us thought was American values once the rank and file is thoroughly confused by social engineering. And I should be clear, this is not limited to one of the branches, it is characteristic.

10. The Rise of the Asian Consumer is, as always from Catherine, thorough and thoughtful. One finds himself in a mental conversation with her as she makes her case, objecting, “But…,” and then she covers the point. The invitation to contribute is too tempting for a student like me, though. I think the number one thing that most Americans will be shocked by is that there will be Asians in their families as the inevitable export of surplus population brings plenty of marriage-minded and readily assimilated young people to these shores. While one correspondent rues that the Chinese arrive unwilling to assimilate, this one disagrees. Non-assimilation would be counterproductive to the strategy of China. Assimilation works perfectly for bringing about a Sinophilic atmosphere in the homeland of China’s most formidable rival. In fact, what limited territorial ambitions might be latent in the historically isolationist Middle Kingdom would also be facilitated by the co-option of an historically meddlesome American deep state.

    A large, wealthy middle class in China would be as problematic for an absolutist state there as it apparently is here. And lacking a history of free speech and open exchange of ideas, there is going to be conflict there. Meanwhile the embarrassment of riches represented by the bounty of Chinese technical graduates will be driven away by policies that inhibit expression. So the currently monolithic Chinese government will either change or be left behind. There is much to be criticized about America, and to a degree, The West, not least its slapdash and mercurial culture, but that, itself, is the most infectious aspect of our culture and—for better or worse—it will grind down the proud mountains of ancient orthodoxies as surely as the flow of water will grind down literal landforms. My point here is while America and the West will eventually look quite a bit more oriental, the East will ineluctably become as that which it now disdains. I think the mentioned and indisputable fact of cuneiform language and its signal maladaptation to computer input and output almost seals the debate of whether English or Mandarin Chinese becomes the language of business, and therefore, which culture will tend to prevail. This is not to say that those who can speak in code (which is essentially what the nuances of Chinese language is to Western ears) will not have certain advantages conferred by their bilinguality. Few even today realize the roots of rap is precisely to be misunderstood by outsiders, not that it is simply a deteriorated corruption of a mother language.

    Last, as I have written before, the effect of the US “Winning” the World War has been ruinous debt by being its policeman, and again, few realize that Britain, particularly under Churchill, masterfully orchestrated the dismantlement of the once-vaunted British Empire in favor of an American one, which absorbed the costs while essentially enacting the same plan, leaving some plum financial business in the hands of their predecessors. Will some American master foist the same burdens on China? We seem to be allowing its military to grow and expand. How far a leap is it that we would carve out a military role for China that actually benefits us?

    The Chinese are not a people who conquest. Their mien has been defensive. They are unlikely to bring hot war to our homeland, despite whatever we might ascribe to their intentions. They might however be put in charge of The Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere (the one that Japan envisioned as its WWII war aims with The Rising Sun at the top). By the time that occurs, the cultural integration of the peoples on both sides of the Pacific will be accomplished. This may or may not be congenial to the plans of Mr. Global, depending on how humanity itself apprehends the new dynamics. On the whole, however, it seems there is less need for concern and more opportunity to advantageously position ourselves for the coming tsunami.

    1. Excellent points, John. I agree that China does not have an aggressive nature other than what is required for liquidity for their currency and in space as they understand the control point and do not want to be controlled from space. However, my concern is that the people who may control China after the 1990’s doe have an aggressive nature and may use China accordingly. It all underscores why Trump is concerned about our competitive leadership in space and tech.

       1. I have often had the vision of Dali’s painting from 1943, “”Geopoliticus” child watching the birth of the new man”, in my mind for more than a decade now. It would be interesting to see Dali’s paintings if he were painting today. Has the “new man” been reborn in China without an overt war?

          https://www.salvador-dali.org/en/artwork/catalogue-raisonne/resized_imatge.php?obra=578&imatge=1

11. Question about Chinese ‘Communism’ … I thought that the State owned everything. Yet private ownership seems to be allowed in Red China (as opposed to Taiwan). Yet the State has an iron fist in all affairs. Can you walk us thru this? Fascist, socialist, communist – all of the above? Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad author) had an interest in a gold mine and when they struck a large vein of gold, the government immediately confiscated it without remuneration.

    Plan C? Also, what is the story behind the ghost cities in China? Estimates up to 60 million EMPTY UNITS build in last 8 years. Could those be just central government inefficiency OR maybe housing for 25 million Australians? (after all, China needs farmland to feed their billions) OR maybe errant Americans who need to be ‘re-educated’?? Maybe I AM a bit ‘creative’ but building 60 MILLION units with infrastructure can’t be a mistake, can it? (BTW, there are 119 million homes and condos in the USA)

    Asian Invasion – Lots of verified reports that (Red) Chinese are buying up homes in the US and will INCREASE in future years. They are paying cash for many homes, scraping them and building HUGE homes for extended families. The government has restrictions on capital leaving their country and wondering if the spike in BitCoin late last year was the partial reason.

    Thanks …

    1. Good questions – will cover in Ask Catherine this week.

    2. Great question about the ghost cities. I eagerly await reading the thoughts in Ask Catherine.

12. Asia Rising is another puzzle piece that I didn’t even know that I needed to understand!

    The sheer numbers are astounding to comprehend. So while the USA middle class was being systematically DISMANTLED over the last 35 years, the purchasing and influence power of the Chinese middle class was dramatically (& intentionally) increasing. Talk about a Pivot!! … and all within one or two generations! No wonder Jim Rogers left NY and moved his daughters there when they were young. (“The 19th Century belonged to the UK, the 20th Century belonged to the USA and the 21st Century belongs to China”)

    With the ‘world wide push’ of Mr Global backing China with money and stolen / back-engineered technology, no wonder they moved ahead so quickly! AND it is equally amazing how President Trump’s push is moving the USA ahead as well. (Repatriation of $4 trillion, the Tax Cut & Jobs Act, 4.1% GDP growth etc).

    Trump co-authored ‘Why We Want You to Be Rich’ in 2006 where he said ‘The middle class is dying and it is the heart of American prosperity.’ He seems to have damaged Globalization in many ways and perhaps Mr Global is letting Trump win at home while they play their international military games abroad. Is the Art of the Deal at work?

    Again, thank you Catherine & Company for bringing Asia Rising to our attention. Kinda like the elephant in the living room that isn’t getting media attention. No surprise as prostitutes are much more ‘newsworthy’ than are major international trends that affect ALL of us! 🙂

    1. Glad you got it, Rebel Commander. Means I am doing my job!

       1. My question is why…? Is it simply use up America and then spit them out to prepare and advance a continent simply because they have a higher demographic than the entire western world?

          Catherine you’re a genius. I loved it and have comments from my experience working in fashion.

          1. Would love to have the fashion angle on this one!

13. I watched 23 minutes and realized that I would rather be in the garden…so, what is happening to our relationship to nature? Is it being regenerated and nourished? I will make compost! The loss of the rice paddies and a healthy ecosystem has not been adequately acknowledged. Oikos-nomia, “economy’ in its original Greek meaning pointed to a human life in balance within the family within the farm within the community.

    1. It is summer where you live. Time to be outside and put our hands in the dirt. It is the time of year when we grow things. And if you look at the inflation headed our way from Asia, the more we grow our own food, the much better we are. So I think your spirit reached a very logical conclusion. 🙂

14. Little surprises about US exports. Some time ago I was reporte seeing here in Italy laundromat equipment made in USA. Another specialised area I have noticed involves some relatively low-tech American products exported to the EU for use in jewellery and watchmaking workshops. Not exactly space age tech, but it’s there. I can’t recall seeing in Europe any American-made common consumer items, which are mostly from Asia and occasionally local.

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